It’s no surprise that the Boston Celtics have the best odds to win the NBA championship next season at +300, hot on the heels of their 2024 title. In second place are two teams that have made big moves this offseason to improve their rosters, with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers each at +800. The Thunder added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to their impressive young core, while Daryl Morey’s 76ers made a splash in free agency, signing All-Star wing Paul George to flank former league MVP Joel Embiid and rising star guard Tyrese Maxey.

The Rockets, a young team on the rise in the Western Conference after winning 41 games last season, are 150-1, just ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz in their conference. Notably, they are behind the Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs in the odds, two teams that finished behind them in last season’s standings.

What would have to happen for the Rockets to win the most surprising championship in NBA history? A lot would have to fall into place.

For starters, the team should build on its top-10 defensive finish from last season and flesh out that identity. But Houston has been one of the league’s worst shooting and offensive teams in 2023-24 — that needs to change. If the Rockets were to climb the league’s shooting rankings, it would be a safe bet that rookie guard Reed Sheppard, a sharpshooter out of Kentucky, would play a significant role for the team off the bench and force teams to pay to double-team fourth-year big man Alperen Sengun.

Speaking of Sengun, the Rockets center should build on his breakout season last year, when he averaged 21 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists as the team’s fulcrum on offense under head coach Ime Udoka. Should the Rockets make a significant jump up the standings, there’s also a good chance that fourth-year guard Jalen Green would look a lot more like the March version of himself (when he claimed Western Conference Player of the Month honors) than his season averages. Green is an electric scorer and made big strides as a playmaker last season, but struggled with his consistent long-range shooting.

Other members of the team’s “Core 6” of young talent should also make a leap: forwards Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason (who has been nursing a leg injury) and wingers Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.

But the most likely factor that could contribute to an upset for the Rockets is a trade deadline deal for an All-Star. It’s no secret that the Rockets are keeping an eye on the situation in Phoenix, where the Suns are perilously in the second slump of the collective bargaining agreement. Through a summer trade with the Brooklyn Nets, Houston owns the rights to the Suns’ future obligations. If things go south for Phoenix quickly this season, would the Suns be open to a trade with the Rockets to regain control of their future? Kevin Durant would fit perfectly into Houston’s roster as a forward, as he would on any NBA roster. The Rockets could offer up picks, salary padding (in the form of expiring contracts), and young prospects, as previously mentioned. A quartet of Sengun, Fred VanVleet, Durant, and Green (out of his March form) surrounded by whoever is left of the team’s top prospects could be formidable.

The Rockets winning the 2024-25 title is about as unlikely a bet as any, as recent odds suggest. But there is one scenario in which such an outsider could become plausible.