Boeing has released its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow. The manufacturer predicts a 3% increase in aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, with airlines needing nearly 44,000 new commercial aircraft by 2043.

With 33,380 new deliveries forecast, single-aisle aircraft will make up 71% of the 2043 fleet, serving short- to medium-haul routes. Boeing expects the global widebody fleet to double, with 8,065 deliveries over the next two decades.

As demand for air travel continues to grow, Boeing expects passenger air traffic to grow by an average of 4.7 percent per year over the next two decades. Boeing predicts the global commercial fleet will grow by 3.2 percent per year. To make up for the gap between fleet and traffic growth, Boeing says airlines will improve aircraft utilization by increasing passenger load factors and flying more hours per day. Boeing also notes that the average global airfare is about the same as it was 20 years ago.

“This is a challenging and inspiring time for aviation,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing, in a company statement. “The return to more typical traffic growth demonstrates how resilient our industry is, even as we all face continued supply chain and manufacturing constraints amid other global challenges.”

Boeing dominated the last Farnborough Airshow in 2022, earning 176 aircraft orders, significantly ahead of rival Airbus (85). The largest order came from Delta Air Lines, which committed to 100 Boeing 737 MAX 10s and 30 additional options for every plane in the 737 MAX family. A year after the last Farnborough, Boeing had received more than 1,000 aircraft orders, with the 737 family receiving the largest share of that demand. The odds turned at last year’s Paris Air Show, when Airbus earned 846 orders, nearly double Boeing’s 356. The stakes are high for Boeing to earn orders at Farnborough this year after a prolonged string of problems the airliner has faced since the Alaska Airlines blowout.

A No Planes Airshow for Boeing this year

Boeing will be at this year’s Farnborough International Airshow without commercial test aircraft for popular static and flight demonstrations.

Boeing said in a recent statement that it had “adjusted its presence at the 2024 Farnborough International Airshow as the company focuses on strengthening safety and quality and delivering on customer commitments.” Instead, it will bring immersive displays to showcase next-generation technologies and capabilities and a full-scale 777X interior.

“We are focused on implementing our comprehensive safety and quality plan and delivering on our customer promises. With these priorities in mind, we have reduced our commercial aircraft shows and flight demonstrations at the show and will focus on new technology, sustainability, security and service solutions,” Dr. Brendan Nelson AO, president of Boeing Global, said in the company’s announcement. “The best way to build trust is through high-quality performance in our factories, one airplane at a time.”

Qatar Airways will showcase the Boeing 787-9 in its static display.

In defense, Boeing will have two F-15QAs for air shows. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) corral will include a U.S. Air Force F-15E, U.S. Army AH-64E Apache, CH-47F Chinook and U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon.

Boeing orders before Farnborough 2024

Boeing has announced a number of significant customer orders ahead of this year’s airshow, including an order from Turkish Airlines for four 777 Freighters to support the airline’s planned expansion into the global air cargo market. The new order would increase Turkish Airlines’ 777F fleet to 12.

Turkish Airlines is in talks with Airbus and Boeing to buy 235 aircraft as part of a 10-year fleet expansion plan to add nearly 600 planes. In December, Turkish Airlines announced that it had signed a deal with Airbus for 355 aircraft with options, including A321 narrowbody and A350 widebody aircraft. Turkish Airlines may announce an order for Boeing aircraft at Farnborough, but nothing is certain. Turkish Airlines’ order for 600 aircraft was initially expected to be delivered at last year’s Paris Air Show, but no announcement was made.

Emirates SkyCargo also ordered five additional 777 Freighters this month to meet growing cargo demand, taking Emirates’ order book to 245 Boeing widebody aircraft, including 10 777 Freighters.

A much-needed vote of confidence in the 737 MAX recovery ahead of Farnborough came from Aviation Capital Group LLC, which ordered 35 737 MAX jets, including 16 737-8 and 19 737-10 variants. Following an incremental 737 MAX order last year, this order increases the lessor’s commitment to the 737 MAX to 82.

Boeing focuses on tackling challenges

Whatever orders come out of Farnborough, Boeing will have to deliver for the next 20 years.

Despite the challenges and the FAA’s production cap on 737s, Boeing reported 70 deliveries of 737s in the second quarter, bringing total deliveries for the year through the second quarter to 137. Boeing also delivered 22 widebody aircraft, including six 767s, seven 777s and nine 787 Dreamliners in the second quarter, bringing total deliveries for the year through the second quarter to 38.

The 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 have yet to be certified. So does Boeing’s groundbreaking 777X. Boeing has good news about that new widebody plane for Farnborough. The FAA this week approved certification flights for the 777X, and on Wednesday GE Aerospace announced that the first GE9X engine for the plane was on its way to Boeing. Boeing has been redeploying engineers from NASA’s X-66A program and reassigning them to further develop its commercial airplane programs, including the 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 10 and 777X.